Celtic Plc (CLTFF) Stock Message Board | InvestorsHub (2024)

The Celts appear to have been beaten up and undervalued for so long they are struggling to believe that their time has FINALLY come. This is a new blog post I just came across. I added the blue colored commentary since I had to look up the definition of the meaning.

What’s Going On With Celtic’s Swelling Share Price? Something … Or Nothing?

James Forrest 21:09 05/07/24

https://thecelticblog.com/2024/07/articles-and-features/whats-going-on-with-celtics-swelling-share-price-something-or-nothing/

One of the stories I think we’ve all been following in the background is that of Celtic’s rising share price. I’ve read a lot of speculation about what it might be, and I have to be honest that as interesting as I find it all I cannot claim to being able to make head nor tail of it.

I have only the most limited understanding of this stuff, and certainly not enough to be able to make a confident prediction on what this might be. David Low, whose opinions I respect enormously, doesn’t seem to think that this is much more than an adjustment in anticipation of some sort of positive financial report. He may be right.

I know more about what this is not than I do about what it is. So let me tell you what I understand it not to be before we think about alternative explanations.

First, this is not a natural statistical variance. The company share price has gone up 40%. That’s not a standard stock fluctuation.

Secondly, this is not a consequence of some coming big deal on sponsorship or merchandising; those aren’t up yet. They have a way to run. The merchandising contract is up, I think, at the end of the season to come so it’s too early for that to be making some big difference.

This doesn’t seem to be an imminent announcement on cash coming into the club via a commercial source, so we can probably rule that out.

This is not, as some are speculating, a reaction to the coming settlement of certain court cases, although I can sort of see why some might assume that.

Once this issue is settled that’s in the past and organisations which get out from under a court judgement usually do experience a rise in their share price; anyone who has ever seen Wall Street knows that Bud Fox makes his first killing due to inside information about the company his father is a union rep with.

But those cases are of no interest to most of the outside world except for those at Ibrox who obsess over every single detail. Not one of the reports about this which has been in the papers have affected the share price one iota up until now, because the markets understand that we won’t face major liability either way when this is covered by insurance.

(And don’t get me started on that subject; the only way that insurance would not cover this is if liability was legally established and it was proved that current directors had been involved in a crime. Not even the most rabid Sevconian has ever seriously suggested such a thing.)

There was some suggestion that it might have been due to the double and the automatic Champions League qualification; a lot of the rise fits in with that, but I can’t remember automatic qualification changing that in times past, and so I have my doubts that this is about that. It’s a significant rise, and I just don’t think the club share price has moved so much due to it.

Some speculate that it’s that and the Matt O’Riley deal combined. That deal isn’t done yet. There might not be a Matt O’Riley deal. So that’s speculative and the share price doesn’t climb more than 30% on the back of transfer market speculation.

The price hasn’t been this high in 23 years. The Record’s ignorant speculation is that this is caused by “the double winning season”. They even peeled £10 million off our estimated £40 million take for the Champions League, which I had a good laugh about. We’ve won trebles and not seen that rise. Double trebles. 3Treble. The Quadruple Treble. No increase like this.

In short, they have no idea and are too lazy to go and ask an expert.

A significant share purchase or sale would move the needle. Naturally. But we’re a PLC and that stuff would already be a matter of record. Could it be talks about a sale? Yes, but if it’s moving the share price then it’s significant enough and known enough to have leaked.

This is where what much of the online speculation is focussed on. That perhaps a major shareholder is ready to sell up to someone else, and that this has leaked and that the price is increasing as a result. But see, we’re not the club from Ibrox, who aren’t on any official exchange and who can, therefore, hide something like this … or manufacture stories about takeover bids without incurring any regulatory consequences.

It’s possible that there could be talks behind the scenes. But would enough have leaked to move the share price without alerting someone to write a story? It seems doubtful. As I said though, this isn’t anywhere near to being my area of expertise, or indeed anything I can speak on with any confidence. I know some basic stuff, enough to rule certain things out, but not enough to say with any certainty what it could be. No-one, to my knowledge, who owns a significant block of shares has expressed any interest in selling them … as I have lamented, there are people who think this club is their personal thing to pass down to the next generation, returning us to an era when we were a “family club” as opposed to being just a family club.

So I’m inclined to think that David Low might have it right; it’s not sexy, but it’s still a story. He says that experts believe that Celtic has long been undervalued and maybe this is Celtic finally rising towards a more realistic market capitalisation, based on strong returns, a healthy balance sheet, infrastructure spending and sustained success.

The things this board does right it does very right.

We are in rude financial health (British, old-fashioned
: strong and healthy)
, and maybe this rise to a more realistic valuation does in fact signify no more than that. It’s also worth noting that the share price and the club’s valuation doesn’t actually put 30% more in the bank … so beware of any story in the mainstream media which tries to link this to the transfer kitty, that’s someone who either doesn’t have a clue what they are on about or someone trying to make trouble.

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