Does The Outlier At An Auction Have Influence On Values? | The Online Automotive Marketplace | Hemmings (2024)

About two years ago on Hemmings Auctions, we sold a 1974 Volkswagen Type 181 “Thing” for $63,000. As best we can tell, it remains an auction record for VW’s quirky, military-inspired/beach-oriented SUV. To be fair, it was an impressively original example, with just 759 miles on the odometer and a history of having been stored in a dry garage from 1981 through 2015, when it was revived.

While we’re more than happy to brag about the success of the sale—and, yeah, we love telling y’all about any record we set, it doesn’t really mean the market has changed all that much, or that there will soon be a run on VW Things like Fabergé eggs. This particular VW was nothing more than an outlier. It did not portend a massive runup in the prices of Volkswagen Things; it stood out and remains well outside the norm of pricing for the model.

If you look at the data compiled by Classic.com, the average value of a VW Thing sold at auction (live and online) the past four years has gone up roughly 10 percent, which equates to about half of the cumulative inflation rate since. Remove our $63,000 Thing, which sold at triple the going rate, and the Type 181 appreciation curve gets a bit flatter.
So, what do we make of an outlier at auction?

One of the most fun parts of being involved in running a collector car auction is watching two or more bidders fight for a vehicle in a way that makes it clear that their emotions are driving the price up — not some sort of fiscally rooted motivation. After a fashion, the economics no longer make sense. It doesn’t matter that the going market suggests that the bidders are playing a game that will not make their accountants happy.

We have seen some other records here at Hemmings that fit that outlier pattern. Twice we have had the pleasure of delivering the news that we had set a record for an AMC Pacer* at auction, most recently in the spring of 2022 when a highly original 1975 Pacer X crossed our digital block for $37,275. (* The asterisk here is indicated because the heavily modified Pacer from the Wayne’s World movie, a.k.a. Garth’s “Mirthmobile”, sold for nearly double our Pacer – but we consider that a movie prop more than a collector car.)

A few years back, at Mecum Indy, a 1969 Plymouth Barracuda sold for $440,000. It was a Formula S with a 340 and it was a Mod Top, with cool psychedelic floral patterns on the vinyl roof and interior. But that’s double the going rate for contemporary factory Hemi Barracuda racers and some 10 times what the typical restored notchback small-block car sells for.

As an A-body Barracuda owner, I follow the action in that segment and that market is a bit more sobering than a $440,000 Mod Top would have you believe. Early ’Cuda prices have been kind of flat to a bit down, despite the brilliance that Mod Top Formula S shone on the segment.

So, again, we have to ask, what does it mean when we witness a sale price that wildly exceeds our expectations? Since my boss has yet to approve that requisition for a crystal ball and a mind reader/staff psychologist so that I can better understand what the market will do and what actually motivates people, we can only speculate.

I do think it’s a safe bet to say that emotions are involved. And, honestly, that’s a great thing to see in the collector car market, no matter what the accountants want you to believe. These things are supposed to be fun. Not every old car needs to be a hedge against commodities, bonds, or your 401(k). We want people who are excited about finding their dream car, even if that dream is a 1975 Pacer. Maybe especiallywhen that dream is a 1975 Pacer.

What I do know and what the data tells us, is that VW Things are still cool, and still valued by collectors, but you won’t be able to sell your beloved Bug-based beach comber to fully fund your retirement. It might be more prudent to keep such a car to enjoy in your later years. The same goes for taking a long position on AMC Pacers. Weird, quirky, and somehow charming after all these years—that’s the AMC Pacer. A solid, blue-chip investment? Not likely.